The Free Money Trade

The global economy has entered a new phase—one where prices are driven less by what is happening now and more by what people believe will happen next. In The Prediction Economy, William Liu examines how forecasts, probability markets, and expectation-driven systems increasingly determine outcomes across finance, politics, technology, and public policy. From weather and economic data to elections and geopolitical risk, prediction markets are quietly becoming one of the most accurate tools for aggregating information and signaling future events. This book explains how prediction markets work, why they often outperform polls and traditional expert forecasts, and how they influence real-world decisions long before outcomes are finalized. Liu explores the economic logic behind probabilistic pricing, the incentives that make these systems efficient, and the growing role they play in shaping capital flows, regulatory decisions, and strategic planning. Rather than offering speculation or hype, The Prediction Economy provides a clear, structured framework for understanding how expectations are formed, priced, and acted upon. Readers will learn how modern markets absorb information, how narrative and data interact, and why understanding probability has become a critical skill in an uncertain world. Written for readers interested in economics, public policy, forecasting, and decision-making, this book offers a grounded look at how prediction systems are reshaping the way societies anticipate—and respond to—the future.