The Making of a Permabear

From the legendary investor renowned for his ability to spot bubbles comes a brilliant account of a storied career as well as a vivid history of the stock market over the last sixty years Raised in a Yorkshire coal-mining town, Jeremy Grantham once won seven games of Monopoly in a single evening—he figured out the most efficient properties on the board and went all in. So begins the story of an iconoclastic investment career launched into the stratosphere by a few simple ideas: buy cheap, watch for bubbles, and stick to your guns when you know you’re right. Deep curiosity about the history of markets kept Grantham one step ahead. He created one of the first index funds in the 1970s, pioneered quantitative investment in the 1980s, and embraced emerging markets before other firms saw their potential. Grantham became famous when he accurately predicted and sidestepped a series of bubbles, but he learned by painful experience why so few others would: “It is terrible business to blow the whistle on a major bull market.” His firm skyrocketed from $250 million to a peak of $155 billion in assets under management. But as his wealth grew, so did his concerns about the deficiencies of capitalism and the unfolding climate crisis. He decided—at the top of his game—to donate nearly all his wealth to environmental protection. With wit that’s as cutting against himself as his critics, Grantham reveals how hunting for bargains requires understanding the inefficiencies of the market and the human behavior that drives it. When resisting the bull market of the late 1990s, Grantham lost clients in droves before his bearish call was vindicated. “The best ideas eventually come out on top,” he says, “but sadly there's no guarantee you won't go out of business waiting.” That you might lose your job for being right is at the root of the short-term thinking that dominates the investment world. Such thinking also has disastrous consequences for the planet and mankind's long-term future. Ultimately, Grantham offers a deeply human, often heretical, and quietly profound lens on investing today.