Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems

Through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system, the author provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and evaluation across disciplines. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model’s consistency with observations is explored.