The Mispricing Game Systematic Edge in Kalshi NHL Contracts

A systematic framework for identifying pricing inefficiencies in Kalshi NHL contracts. Kalshi's NHL markets are not sportsbooks. They are exchanges where prices are set by traders, not odds-makers. The Mispricing Game explains how these markets consistently drift away from true probability, where those gaps form, and how disciplined traders can extract edge without predicting individual game outcomes. Hockey's structure creates persistent inefficiencies. High variance, compressed win probabilities, goaltender volatility, fatigue effects, and overtime mechanics combine to produce prices that routinely overshoot or undershoot fair value. These conditions are amplified by thin liquidity and retail-driven order flow, allowing mispricings to persist longer than in mature betting markets. This book does not rely on historical backtests that cannot exist. Kalshi NHL markets launched in 2025, making long-term data unavailable. Instead, it presents a framework grounded in market mechanics, probability structure, and contract pricing logic—showing how edge forms, when it strengthens, and why it remains exploitable. Inside, you'll learn how favorites become systematically overpriced, how schedule and travel effects are underweighted, how goaltender deployment shifts true probability, and how contract structure creates repeatable extraction opportunities. You'll also learn execution discipline, position architecture, and how to evaluate trades based on price quality rather than outcomes. The Mispricing Game is not about gambling or forecasting scores. It is about understanding how prices form in NHL prediction markets—and positioning yourself where those prices are wrong.