The Mispricing Game: Systematic Edge in Kalshi MLB Contracts

The Mispricing Game is a professional-grade guide to extracting consistent edge from Kalshi MLB prediction markets by exploiting systematic pricing errors created by human psychology. Rather than picking winners, this book teaches you how to price probability better than the crowd. Baseball's unique structure—high variance, daily volume, and overconfidence driven by narratives—creates persistent inefficiencies that most traders never recognize. This book shows how those inefficiencies form, why they repeat every season, and how disciplined traders can position against them. Inside, you'll learn why starting pitchers are consistently overvalued, how hot streaks and cold streaks distort prices, why famous teams and marquee names carry hidden premiums, and how small probability gaps compound into meaningful returns over a full 162-game season. The focus is not speculation or gambling, but systematic expected-value extraction. Written with a clear, analytical voice, The Mispricing Game bridges behavioral economics, market microstructure, and modern baseball analytics into a repeatable trading framework. It is designed for serious traders who want process, not hype—and edge, not entertainment.