The Mispricing Game: Systematic Edge in Kalshi Weather Contracts

Kalshi weather markets are not tests of meteorological skill. They are tests of whether you understand how crowds misprice probability. The Mispricing Game explains why temperature contracts on Kalshi are consistently mispriced and how disciplined traders extract systematic edge by trading uncertainty instead of forecasts. Retail traders anchor to headline predictions from the National Weather Service, treating point forecasts as certainty. In reality, every forecast is a probability distribution with known error ranges—and that gap between perception and reality is where edge lives. This book breaks down how forecast uncertainty, ensemble spread, timing dynamics, and binary contract structure combine to create repeatable mispricing. You'll learn why crowds overpay for confidence, why tail probabilities are ignored, and how official forecasts become psychological anchors that distort prices rather than clarify them. The strategies in this book do not rely on backtesting proprietary Kalshi data or predicting weather better than professional meteorologists. Instead, they use behavioral economics, market microstructure, and probability calibration to identify when the crowd is wrong—and how to position before prices converge. The Mispricing Game is a framework for traders who want to approach Kalshi weather markets systematically, defensibly, and without emotion. You are not betting on the weather. You are trading against crowd error.