The Black Sea Without Ukraine: Trade Corridors, NATO Limits, and the New Geometry of Power

What happens when a state loses access to the sea—but not to the world? The Black Sea Without Ukraine does not argue who should win a war or how it should end. Instead, it examines a quieter, more consequential question: how global systems respond when maritime access disappears and sovereignty no longer guarantees participation. Using the potential loss of Odesa as a structural case study, this book maps the cascading effects on global trade, insurance markets, security guarantees, and alliance credibility. It treats ports, corridors, and enforcement mechanisms not as symbols, but as operating systems—where risk is priced, leverage accumulates, and power is exercised without formal ownership. Rather than predicting outcomes, the book develops four plausible scenarios for a land-constrained Ukraine: full landlocking, negotiated access, internationalized corridors, and security guarantees under sustained testing. Each scenario is analyzed through the behavior of markets, institutions, and states, revealing how access can be preserved—or eroded—without dramatic rupture. The analysis extends beyond Ukraine. It examines how Europe adapts when maritime assumptions fail, how NATO security guarantees function outside formal membership, and why deterrence increasingly depends on capability and continuity rather than declarations. It also explores the limits of coercive leverage, showing why control over chokepoints produces diminishing returns once markets and infrastructure reconfigure. At its core, this book argues that power in the contemporary international system is shifting from control of territory to control of function. Trade flows, insurance regimes, corridors, and enforcement architectures now determine whether sovereignty is effective or merely formal. Written in a sober, analytical style, The Black Sea Without Ukraine is intended for policymakers, analysts, investors, and serious readers seeking to understand not what should happen, but what systems do when access replaces sovereignty.