The Era of Uncertainty

Many Wall Street analysts have attempted since the crisis to rebrand themselves as economists when it became clear that macro forces are driving the markets. Todays world is not a textbook case study, however, and it cannot be explained by conventional economics. Depth of experience, breadth of economic knowledge, and objectivity are required to think critically about the future. It is impossible to offer a single investment solution since the path ahead depends upon policy decisions yet to be made; however, investors can draw on the experiences of prior credit-driven deleveraging cycles to develop a dynamic framework for investing in an era of economic uncertainty. In this book, the authors discuss the importance of macroeconomic evaluation in this new unstable global economy, including fascinating anecdotes from Francois' time at Bear Stearns prior to its collapse and sale. The authors go on to cover in-depth the three possible future scenarios: severe inflation, severe deflation, or a kind of muddling through. With each scenario they discuss the likely causes and consequences as well as the best strategies for profitable investing. The book concludes with a summary of the future of the financial industry