Homicides in Colombia: Trends, Correlations and Projections to 2050

Colombia continues to be one of the countries with the highest homicide rate in Latin America, a problem that has persisted since 2014 and places it among the highest in the world. This study carries out a comprehensive analysis of intentional homicides in all municipalities of the country, with the aim of understanding their evolution and projecting future trends. The methodology includes descriptive statistics, normality tests (Shapiro-Wilk), correlation analysis and linear regression models for projections to 2050, with 95% confidence intervals. The results reveal critical patterns: the national homicide rate is 9 times higher than the European average, and although a slight decrease has been observed in the last decade, the figures are still alarming. Between 2014 and 2025, the number of homicides ranges from 11,464 to 13,343, with a decreasing trend, especially in homicides of women (negative correlation over time: r ˜ -0.91). However, homicides in men maintain an almost perfect correlation with the total (r ˜ 0.99), which indicates that violence continues to be concentrated in this group. Projections show that by 2050 the country could reach approximately 12,000 homicides per year, with a rate close to 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, which, although lower than today, is still unacceptably high. These findings underscore the urgency of effective public policies, inter-institutional articulation, and preventive strategies in all municipalities to reduce violence and move towards a safer country.