Pandemic Risk Management in Operations and Finance: Modeling the Impact of COVID-19

COVID-19 has spread around the world, causing tremendous structural change, and severely affecting global supply chains and financial operations. As such there is a need for analytic tools help deal with the impact of the pandemic on the world’s economies; these tools are not panaceas and certainly won’t cure the problems faced, but they offer a means to aid governments, firms, and individuals in coping with specific problems. This book provides an overview of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluates its effect on financial and supply chain operations. It then discusses epidemic modeling, presenting sources of quantitative and text data, and describing how models are used to illustrate the pandemic impact on supply chains, macroeconomic performance on financial operations. It highlights the specific experiences of the banking system, which offers predictions of the impact on the Swedish banking sector. Further, it examines models related to pandemic planning, such as evaluation of financial contagion, debt risk analysis, and health system efficiency performance, and addresses specific models of pandemic parameters. The book demonstrates various tools using available data on the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. While it includes some citations, it focuses on describing the methods and explaining how they work, rather than on theory. The data sets and software presented were all selected on the basis of their widespread availability to any reader with computer links.