Bio-Based Resources: Rethinking Sustainable Supply: Social Metabolism, Resource Scarcity, Raw Material Substitution, Circular Economy

Global shortages of fossil, mineral, and agricultural resources, coupled with passed global boundaries, climate changes and rising public debt, represent a systemic risk that threatens economic and social stability. This text examines the interconnectedness of raw material supply, state budgets, and societal resilience through the lens of social metabolism, which sees natural resources as essential “food” for the economy. As resource scarcity reduces economic output and tax revenues, states increasingly rely on debt, risking insolvency if resource-based growth falters. Biogenic resources are often seen as a potential solution—especially in fuels, materials, and biogenic energy—but these compete with food production and rely on fragile agricultural systems already impacted by climate change, erosion, and biodiversity loss. Although some bio-based materials show promise (e.g., hemp in construction or algae fuels), their market share is low but may grow. Moreover, rebound effects may lead to overexploitation rather than sustainable substitution. The analysis concludes that while bio-based resources offer partial relief, they cannot replace systemic changes in consumption, land use, and economic expectations. ctations.