Faulty Reasoning in Cause and Effect

This book consists of the following two titles: - The Correlation-Causation Fallacy: The correlation-causation fallacy is a common error in reasoning where people mistakenly believe that because two events or variables are correlated, one must have caused the other. This fallacy is not only widespread but can have significant consequences in various aspects of life, including science, policy-making, and everyday decision-making. It stems from the human tendency to look for patterns and explanations, often leading us to draw conclusions from observed associations without carefully analyzing the underlying mechanisms at play. - The Gambler's Fallacy: The Gambler's Fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is a common cognitive bias in which individuals believe that past events can influence future random outcomes. It is particularly evident in gambling scenarios, where players wrongly assume that a string of bad or good luck must be followed by a reversal. The core principle of the fallacy lies in the misinterpretation of probability. In reality, the odds of a specific event occurring remain constant, regardless of what happened in the past. This misunderstanding can lead to poor decision-making and increased risks.