The Mispricing Game: Systematic Edge in Kalshi Economics Contracts

The Mispricing Game is a professional, framework-driven guide to extracting consistent edge from Kalshi economics contracts by exploiting how crowds systematically misprice probability around major economic events. Rather than forecasting inflation prints or Federal Reserve decisions, this book teaches you how to trade the gap between consensus belief and true probability. Economic prediction markets are dominated by anchoring, herd behavior, and narrative-driven overconfidence. These forces compress prices around consensus forecasts and underprice tail outcomes that occur far more often than traders expect. Inside, you'll learn how expert forecasts become distorted through consensus formation, why professional incentives push economists toward the median, and how timing around data releases creates repeatable mispricing. The book breaks down CPI, employment reports, GDP releases, and Fed decisions as tradable probability distributions, not guessing games. It shows how to identify where the crowd is overconfident, where probability is ignored, and how small edges compound across a full economic calendar. Written in a clear, analytical voice, The Mispricing Game blends behavioral economics, market microstructure, and practical execution into a systematic trading framework. This is not a tactics book or a promise of shortcuts. It is a disciplined approach for traders who want to understand why prices are wrong — and how to position when they are.