Uncertain Horizons: The Future Of The Gulf In A Shifting World Order

"Uncertain Horizons" is a compelling examination of the unprecedented challenges confronting the Gulf countries in the 21st century. Despite their historic reliance on hydrocarbon wealth and strategic alliances—chiefly with the United States—these nations now face a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and environmental threats that question the sustainability of their current path. The Gulf's security model, underpinned by massive military spending and foreign protection, has not translated into genuine stability. Recent rapprochements, such as normalisation with Israel, have heightened tensions with Iran and alienated large segments of the Arab population, deepening internal and regional divisions. The looming risk of conflict with Iran—and the Gulf's precarious position in any potential confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the U.S.—exposes the region's vulnerability and highlights its continuing dependence on external actors for defence. Economically, the Gulf faces an existential test as the global energy transition accelerates away from hydrocarbons. Efforts toward economic diversification have been uneven, and failure to adapt quickly could consign these states to future marginalisation. Overlaying these concerns are severe environmental threats: rising temperatures, water scarcity, and the spectre of climate change threaten not only the Gulf's infrastructure but its very habitability. This book explores a range of future scenarios, from gradual decline and economic irrelevance to catastrophic regional war, as well as the possibility of resilience through bold reform and sustainable development. It argues that the future of the Gulf is highly uncertain—and will be determined by the choices its leaders make today. **Uncertain Horizons** challenges readers to consider the stark risks, profound uncertainties, and potential opportunities facing the Gulf, urging critical reflection on what must be done to secure a stable and prosperous future for this strategically vital region. The authors, Bernard Badie and Chedli Mustapha are two French entrepreneurs who have been based in the Gulf for several years. This book is the result of their collaboration and shared experience. It will be of interest to anyone interested in the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, from economic, environmental or geopolitical perspectives.